Written by John R. Bolton a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.
Bolton on Ma’s victory
Ma’s strong support for closer economic ties with China reflects the widely held expectation that such ties will improve Taiwan’s economic position. Moreover, in pursuit of those ties, he will downplay Taiwan’s political challenge to China, not because, as many Europeans and Americans mistakenly believe, he ultimately seeks to lay the basis for reunification, but because he believes that enhancing Taiwan’s economic strength will lead to increased political strength for whatever negotiations come later with China. That is entirely sensible. An economically weaker Taiwan is hardly well-positioned to stand up to the rapidly growing Chinese economy.
On recognizing Taiwan as a sovereign state,
Recognition would bring stability and certainty, thus actually lowering the risks that Beijing will misinterpret the U.S. position and threaten or actually commence military action to regain Taiwan. Extending diplomatic recognition would no more prejudice the U.S.’ “one China" policy (itself an exercise in confusion and ambiguity) or the ultimate issue of reunification than did U.S. recognition of the two Germanys during the Cold War.
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